Magic Numbers: Who\’s In & Who\’s Out?
September 21, 2023
By: Carlos Alvarez
Baseball’s “Magic Number” Season is Upon Us — Let Us Help Make Sense of It All
By this point in the regular season, you might be baseballed out. October is so close you can taste it, but these dozens of regular-season games seem difficult to track in the final two weeks of the season. Who’s in? Who’s out? Who needs to win how many? And how does this loss impact the other teams? It’s all very chaotic. Enter baseball’s “Magic Number” phenomenon. The magic number is the number of wins a team needs (or the same combination of losses by competitors) to achieve the divisional crown or wild card spot. For our own sake, we didn’t go calculating each team’s magic number (not yet, maybe next week), but we’ve come up with our own simplified system — it’s called guessing.
Playoff Outlook: A total of 20 teams somehow remain mathematically alive with approximately ten games or less to play. Only 12 teams make the playoffs, and four teams have already clinched (Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays). That leaves eight spots for 16 ball clubs.
Guessing the Field: In the next section, you can find the “playoff picture” to help break down the standings. If we assume the Twins and Brewers hold onto the Central Divisions (AL/NL) has they have since the All-Star break, we can eliminate two more bids. That’s six out of 12, confirmed. The Twins’ magic number stands at 2, and the Brewers’ magic number stands at 4.
Eliminating Yankees & Red Sox (AL): The AL Wild Card is going to crush one deserving team, but the Yankees or Red Sox would need a miracle. Let’s say they don’t get it. That means three of the following four teams get in — Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners or Rangers.
Eliminating Padres & Giants (NL): The two NL West bidders are likely going to fall short in a crowded race. Even with the Padres surging, it’ll take a miracle to nearly win out and hope other Wild Card hopefuls falter. That means three of the following five teams get in — Phillies, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Marlins or Reds.
For now, we’ll leave you with a standings compilation of every eligible playoff team. We’ll see the list dwindle day-by-day as the magic numbers come pouring in.
MLB Playoff Picture
American League
East: Orioles (95-57) ![\"✅\"](\"https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/e/notoemoji/15.0/2705/72.png\")
West: Astros (85-68)
Central: Twins (81-72)
Wild Card 1: Rays (93-60)
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays (85-67)
Wild Card 3: Mariners (84-68)
———————————
Out: Rangers (84-68)
Out: Yankees (76-76)
Out: Red Sox (75-78)
Out: Guardians (72-81)
National League
East: Braves (97-55)
West: Dodgers (93-58)
Central: Brewers (86-66)
Wild Card 1: Phillies (83-69)
Wild Card 2: Diamondbacks (81-72)
Wild Card 3: Cubs (79-73)
———————————
Out: Marlins (79-74)
Out: Reds (79-75)
Out: Giants (76-76)
Out: Padres (75-78)
*Clinched Postseason Berth
MLB Quick-Hitters
Brewers Inch Closer: Josh Donaldson (1 HR) and Tyrone Taylor (2 HRs) gave the Brewers an 8-2 win over the Cardinals Wednesday to pull their magic number to four and inch closer to the NL Central crown.
Carroll Makes History: D-backs’ rookie Corbin Carroll has officially stamped himself the NL Rookie of the Year after becoming the first-ever rookie with a 25-HR, 50-SB season. In the process, he helped Arizona notch a 7-1 win over the Giants in a critical NL Wild Card race.
Toronto’s TKO Punch: The Blue Jays may have delivered the knockout punch to the Yankees on Wednesday with a 6-1 win behind Kevin Gausman’s gem (6 IP, 10 Ks, 3 Hits, 0 ER). Toronto has won five in a row through a critical stretch.
Photo: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images