The NFL Draft Playbook

The Sportsletter’s Connor Groel Dissects the Analytics of NFL Draft Trends

The NFL Draft begins Thursday, but the game plan has been taking shape for months. It’s not as simple as picking the best player available. The chess match of trades, positional fits and value picks make this spectacle must-see television. When your team sends a name to the podium, it could make or break the franchise in the years ahead. Which players get picked where? And how do those picks end up playing out? Let’s take a look at the trends in NFL Draft history.

QBs Leading the Way 

Trevor Lawrence is expected to be selected by the Jaguars with the No. 1 pick in the draft. Of the 85 players taken first overall, 34 of them (40%) have been quarterbacks. However, QBs have gone No. 1 in 15 of the last 20 drafts, indicating the rising importance of the position.

Along with Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields, there could be as many as five quarterbacks taken in the first 10 picks. That has never happened before. Only twice have four QBs gone in the top 10 (1949 & 2018). It was just three years ago when we saw Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen go in the first 10 picks.

No. 1 is No Sure Thing

While Lawrence has been viewed as the No. 1 pick for at least a year now, top draft selections haven’t fared as well as one might think. Just over half (43 of 85) of top overall picks have gone on to make a Pro Bowl appearance in their careers. Luckily, the success rate has been higher as of late. Fifteen of the last 20 No. 1 picks have made a Pro Bowl, and both Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow could join that group in the next few years.

Only 14 of those 85 top selections have made the Hall of Fame. That’s a “Hall Call” for 16.4 percent of top overall picks, but only two of the No. 1 overall picks in the last 20 years are likely heading to Canton (Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford). Both quarterbacks.

A Tight End in the Top 5?

Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is being projected as high as fourth in this year’s draft, a pick currently owned by the Atlanta Falcons. If Pitts is taken in the top five, it will be the first time a TE has gone that early since Riley Odoms was drafted fifth by the Broncos in 1972. Vernon Davis, who is frequently compared to Pitts, went sixth in the 2006 Draft.

Pitts had 770 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in just eight games for Florida last season, and at just 20 years old, he could be a star for a long time.

Defense Dropping Down the Board

Alabama corner Patrick Surtain II, Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, and South Carolina corner Jaycee Horn are expected to be some of the first players selected on the defensive side of the ball. However, with this year’s abundance of quarterbacks and pass-catchers, it seems unlikely for any defensive player to be selected in the top five.

The last time the first five picks were all offensive selections was 2012. That year, the Cowboys drafted cornerback Morris Claiborne No. 6 overall.

Running Backs: Diamonds in the Rough

While Najee Harris and Travis Etienne are talented prospects that should be taken in the late first or second round, it could be one of the running backs taken towards the back half of the draft (or not drafted at all) that makes the biggest splash.

Last year’s rookie rushing champion James Robinson went undrafted before gaining 1,070 yards for the Jaguars. In the last few years, several more diamonds in the rough have gone on to achieve success, including Jordan Howard (2016 5th-round pick), Aaron Jones (2017 5th-round pick), and Chris Carson (2017 7th-round pick).

We’ve got the NFL Draft playbook memorized, and so does your team. The next question is: Will they call the right play and land a star?

NFL Draft: Thursday (8:00 pm ET)

Additional Storylines

NFL.com: Best Team Fits for Top Running Backs Based on Analytics-Based Pairings

ESPN: 49ers Say They Like 5 QBs With No. 3 Overall Pick, Still Undecided

The Spun: Mel Kiper Jr. Uses 1 Word to Describe 2021 NFL Draft

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