Inside the Minds of Selection Sunday

February 24, 2021

By: Jeff Yoder

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a wild ride for sports. We’ve got it all.

First thing’s first: The Sportsletter’s Connor Groel goes deep into the minds of the NCAA Selection Committee. Your pre-bracket knowledge starts now.

Letter Rip!

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NCAA

Inside the Minds of Selection Sunday

By Connor Groel: How the Committee’s History Could Impact the 2021 NCAA Tournament

With Selection Sunday fewer than three weeks away, it’s becoming clear which teams are safely in the March Madness field and who will be anxiously awaiting their fate as this year’s bracket is announced. Here are a few trends to watch out for that might provide hints to what the committee will do with those final few spots.

Makeup of the Committee

The NCAA Tournament selection committee has 10 members who serve staggered five-year terms. Traditionally, six of those members came from mid-major conferences, with the remaining four from high-major conferences. That changed when Creighton AD Bruce Rasmussen was appointed to the committee in 2013, just before the university moved from the Missouri Valley to the Big East.

For the next five years, the split between high and mid-majors was 5-5, and unsurprisingly, the number of mid-majors receiving at-large bids fell. The 2018-19 season was the first after the mid-major conferences regained their 6-4 advantage on the committee.

There was an immediate shift with Belmont receiving an at-large bid. It was the first time the Ohio Valley had sent two teams to March Madness since 1987. Obviously, there was no tournament last season, but if the committee continues to favor mid-majors, things would look good for both Loyola Chicago and Drake to make the Big Dance out of the Missouri Valley.

Some other mid-majors on the bubble are VCU, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Louis, and Richmond in the Atlantic 10, and Boise State, Colorado State, and Utah State in the Mountain West.

Iffy Record? No Problem.

Many college basketball fans hate seeing teams with losing records in conference play and overall records not far above .500 making the tournament. However, as the NCAA has moved from the RPI to the NET and started taking advanced metrics such as KenPom ratings and BPI into account, a team’s record is less important than in years past.

Prior to 2017, no team had ever received an at-large bid with 15 losses. Then, three years in a row (Vanderbilt in 2017, Alabama in 2018, and Florida in 2019) a team made the field at 19-15 overall. In 2019, two teams (Oklahoma and Ohio State) received at-large bids despite finishing four games under .500 in conference play. No team had done that since Florida State in 1998.

Especially with shorter non-conference schedules this year, expect to see more teams in March Madness with records closer to .500 overall. A group of Big Ten teams including Maryland (13-10), Minnesota (13-10), Rutgers (12-9) and Indiana (12-10) are all very much in the tournament conversation.

The Importance of Quality Wins

If both mid-majors and high-majors with weaker records likely have better chances this year, who might find it harder to make the tournament? That would be power conference teams who haven’t shown an ability to beat top competition.

The committee is looking for schools that have taken advantage of their opportunities to pick up quality wins. When the margins between playing in March Madness and the NIT are tight, it isn’t good enough to beat up on the bottom half of a conference and then roll over when faced with a challenge.

A team like Louisville is probably in the tournament right now. But at 0-4 in Quadrant 1 games, the Cardinals could run into trouble if they go on a losing streak down the stretch. A lack of strong wins is also an issue for Xavier, Connecticut, and Syracuse.

These factors could all be in play as the selection committee decides what teams will play for a championship this season. Of course, the best way to guarantee a spot in the field is always to just keep winning. A team that automatically qualifies by winning their conference tournament leaves nothing up to chance. And if there’s one thing we know about Selection Sunday, you don’t want to put your fate in the hands of the committee.

Additional Storylines

CBS Sports: Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke Has Played Itself Into Consideration

Sporting News: March Madness 1.0: Predicting the Field of 68 for 2021 NCAA Tournament

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GOLF